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Download Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - by Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne PDF

By Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier (eds.)

Population development slowed the world over within the final many years of the 20th century, altering considerably our view of the longer term. The 21st century is probably going to determine the top to international inhabitants development and turn into the century of inhabitants getting older, marked through low fertility and ever-increasing existence expectancy. those traits have brought on many to foretell a depressing destiny because of an exceptional fiscal burden of inhabitants getting older. In reaction, industrialized countries might want to enforce potent social and fiscal regulations and courses.

This is the ultimate quantity in a chain of 3. The papers integrated discover many examples and enhance the foundation for potent fiscal and social regulations by way of investigating the industrial, social, and demographic effects of the modifications within the buildings of inhabitants and kin. those effects contain adjustments in fiscal habit, either in exertions and fiscal markets, and in regards to saving and intake, and intergenerational transfers of cash and care.

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Additional resources for Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3

Example text

Given the interest in the industrialized world for issues connected to the elderly, the focus will be on what we can learn about the level of mortality, and changes therein, based on age-structural transitions. Given the sum of two numbers A and B, we cannot infer A and B from that sum alone. Only by adding extra information can we compute them, for instance when their difference is also given, or their product. Similarly, since the current age structure is the net result of historical age-specific fertility, mortality and migration, we are unable to infer the levels of the components of change from the age structure alone.

The GIP-method estimates these parameters, given the constraints, by minimizing a penalty function which contains three terms: one for the relative deviations in estimated and observed deaths, one for the deviations in the age structure at time T and a third one with period-to-period fluctuations in the migration scale parameter. Thus, the method obtains an optimal fit of the model to the data on deaths and final age structure, while at the same time the migration parameter changes as little as possible.

Numbers in each age group may grow or fall over time, depending on the balance between fertility and immigration on the one hand, and mortality and emigration on the other – but their relative share in the total population remains unchanged. When the age distribution varies over time, it signals changing levels of fertility, mortality and migration. The purpose of the present paper is to review the literature that deals with the following question: What lessons can we draw from changes in the age structure of the populations in industrialized countries?

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